The ceasefire is being stress-tested from three directions — Israel's Lebanon campaign, Hormuz's functional closure, and Trump's escalation threats. Updated probabilities.

Mojtaba Khamenei is reportedly unconscious in Qom. The IRGC is already violating the ceasefire. The question isn't who's next in line — it's who's already running things.

Revised probabilities after the two-week ceasefire — the worst-case tails dropped, but a new center of risk emerged: incompatible readings, untested authority, and a strait that's technically open and functionally closed.

Two weeks to talk, but the Strait is throttled, the IRGC is ascendant, Israel opted out, and neither side agrees on what was agreed. Updated probabilities forthcoming.

Consolidated reference updated through April 7 evening — Khamenei death, Trump extension, Friday Islamabad talks, revised probability table, three risks that could kill the diplomatic window

Khamenei dead, Trump extends deadline, ceasefire talks Friday — revised probability table and three risks that could close the window

Kharg, veto, mobilization, and Saudi Jubail strike force material downward revision across all diplomatic outcomes

Completed — 7/7 items complete

Deadline-hour status: Kharg Island struck, Russia/China veto UN resolution, Iran mobilizes 14M volunteers. Probability table revised sharply downward on ceasefire.

The Saudi strike threatens Pakistan's mediation role — the one channel keeping talks alive. Updated probability table.

Why Pakistan — not Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland — became the back channel. And why the Saudi defense pact is the single biggest threat to the Islamabad framework.

Deadline day: Kharg Island, Saudi strikes, and a 10-hour window. Revised probability table and three scenarios for tonight.

[archived] 8/8 items completed

Pakistan-brokered Islamabad Accord confirmed; US submits competing 15-point counter-proposal; Trump: "not good enough" — ~23 hours to deadline

60 minutes to deadline. Iran's maximalist counter-proposal has compressed ceasefire odds. Three scenarios for the final hour.

[archived] 7/7 items completed

China delivers a ceasefire plan to both Tehran and Washington. The deadline math just changed.