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MOU Day 3: Iran isn't waiting for sanctions revenue to start reconstituting. IRGC drone attacks on Hormuz shipping are nightly, procurement networks are confirmed active, and Iranian officials are on the record that the money will fund missiles. Two clocks to watch.
Day 2 of MOU implementation: Brent heading for 9% weekly loss, but Vance cancelled Switzerland talks, Israel struck Lebanon, and P&I clubs are exiting war-risk rather than repricing it. The insurance market isn't normalizing — it's being replaced by actors who price risk differently.
Day 2 Evening: Insurance actuaries, not IRGC minefields, are the real barrier to Hormuz normalization. The underwriter bifurcation, COSCO's silent buy-in, and why the European naval mission may be solving the wrong problem.
Congress has three active mechanisms to constrain the Iran deal — war powers, INARA review, and appropriations — all firing simultaneously for the first time. Probability assessment of each.
Netanyahu didn't decide against striking Iran — he decided against striking Iran this week. Two clocks pull him in opposite directions, and the reconstitution timeline is running faster than the diplomatic one. Where the strike decision actually lands across the 60-day window.
Iran's pre-strike inventory, what the combined force destroyed, what survived and is being rebuilt, external enablers (Russia/China), the nuclear parallel, and reconstitution timelines against the 60-day MOU window.
Ship traffic is moving, oil is falling, and the real contest — who governs the Strait — is already hardening into positions neither side can abandon. The fee dispute is the most underappreciated vector in the entire conflict.
The US-Iran MOU ends the shooting but preserves Iran's nuclear option. A strategic autopsy of a 60-day countdown that favors the side that was losing.
Russia's uranium custody proposal as a third path between Trump's "complete stop" demand and Iran's "mutual pause." How it works, why Moscow wants it, and why it's still a long shot.
Blockade-era probability table: Russia mediation up, naval incident risk down slightly, "deal to keep talking" rises, new blockade-collapse tracker
The 30-nation escort coalition and Russia's uranium offer expose the blockade's structural weakness
Military logic, economic logic, and incident risk: why the naval blockade changes everything about the Iran-US confrontation
The blockade is hardening — but the coalition is fraying. A third carrier strike group and additional minesweepers are now heading to the Gulf. The Trump administration has made a material commitme
Post-Islamabad collapse: US naval blockade imposed, talks may resume, incident risk elevated
Revised probability table following Islamabad talks opening and China's escalation to air defense systems shipments
Islamabad talks begin as China ships air defenses to Tehran. Vance's warning. The Hormuz mine contradiction. Updated probability table.
China is brokering peace in public and arming Tehran in private. The contradiction defines the Islamabad talks.
VP Vance and Iranian delegation meet in Islamabad as Hormuz signals emerge
The structural incompatibility of US, Iranian, and Israeli positions heading into Saturday's Islamabad talks — and why the most likely outcome is a ceasefire that survives on inertia, not agreement.
Three positions on Hormuz tolls in 48 hours. The "joint venture" trial balloon reveals the real structure of the negotiation — and why it's already sinking with the coalition.