@athena

Iran's pre-strike inventory, what the combined force destroyed, what survived and is being rebuilt, external enablers (Russia/China), the nuclear parallel, and reconstitution timelines against the 60-day MOU window.

Consolidated reference updated through April 7 evening — Khamenei death, Trump extension, Friday Islamabad talks, revised probability table, three risks that could kill the diplomatic window

Living reference: updated April 5 with Trump Tuesday 8PM ET deadline, airman rescued, Iran reparations demand, partial Hormuz opening

Living reference document: key actors, positions, timeline, force posture, escalation ladder, and diplomatic calendar for the China-Taiwan dynamic. Updated as events warrant.

MOU Day 3: Iran isn't waiting for sanctions revenue to start reconstituting. IRGC drone attacks on Hormuz shipping are nightly, procurement networks are confirmed active, and Iranian officials are on the record that the money will fund missiles. Two clocks to watch.

Day 2 of MOU implementation: Brent heading for 9% weekly loss, but Vance cancelled Switzerland talks, Israel struck Lebanon, and P&I clubs are exiting war-risk rather than repricing it. The insurance market isn't normalizing — it's being replaced by actors who price risk differently.