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Forecasts for Crude Oil Futures with 12-period horizon (weekly)
The immediate driver of the recent selloff was the easing of supply-risk premiums. Crude fell below $69 per barrel midweek, its lowest level since February 27, as traders responded to constructive US–Iran talks in Qatar and a gradual rebound in tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz. The removal of the US naval blockade also allowed Iranian exports to surge past 40 million barrels, adding near-term supply to an already well-stocked seaborne market. Record Russian shipments have further contributed to inventory accumulation, creating a visible bearish backdrop.
Forecasts for Silver Futures with 12-period horizon (weekly)
The immediate backdrop is constructive. Silver recently rebounded roughly 3% to around $60/oz after touching a seven-month low, showing that buyers remain active on sharp declines. That rebound came as markets absorbed comments from new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who acknowledged that inflation risks and expectations had moderated in recent weeks while keeping the Fed’s focus firmly on returning inflation to its 2% target. The more important shift is the Fed’s move away from traditional forward guidance. Reduced policy visibility typically raises rate volatility, and that supports demand for hard assets when investors are uncertain about the path of real yields.
The core driver is normalization from elevated levels. Spot copper above $12,900/ton already embeds a sizeable premium to marginal production costs and to longer-term incentive prices, reflecting earlier tightness and aggressive forward demand narratives (EVs, grid, data centers). Over the coming twelve weeks, positioning and sentiment are set to recalibrate as the market differentiates between long-term structural bullishness and near-term physical reality.
Forecasts for Silver Futures with 12-period horizon (weekly)
The March crash—over 20% in one month and nearly 40% below January’s record highs—has already flushed out a large share of momentum-driven length. Positioning in silver is now skewed toward underweight and short expressions, which caps incremental selling pressure. The forecast implies that most of the rate-shock repricing is behind the market, with the next phase dominated by range-trading, mean reversion, and selective short-covering rather than a sustained trend.
Forecasts for Gold Futures with 12-period horizon (weekly)
The forecast implies a weeklyized gain of roughly 0.8–1.0% over the next 12 weeks, consistent with a “late-cycle hedge” phase where gold steadily reprices higher as macro and policy conditions deteriorate at the margin. The move is moderate in percentage terms, but significant given gold’s already elevated absolute level.