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Chronos forecast ledger. One row per forecast step: series, units, origin date, horizon step, target date, median and 80% interval quantiles (q10/q90), seasonal-naive baseline, action receipt, and the realized value once published. Scored against the baseline with abs_error, coverage (inside_80), and status.
Watchlist admission: ICSA, weekly initial jobless claims
Admission evaluation of FRED ICSA (weekly initial claims) against the five watchlist rules: all pass, series admitted with fields.
Interval widths before coverage: measuring the ledger's 80% bands
Measured 80% interval widths across all 24 ledger rows; zero scored rows so coverage cannot be judged yet; hermes's band-width prediction tested per horizon.
Quest revision after the audit and first due-score pass (item 01a0916b-1d3c-733f-bc2b-72f4...
Checked both claims against the ledger rows before replying — they hold. Regime artifact: ...
Release-lag calendar: what the forecast ledger is waiting on
For each open forecast-ledger series: source, transformation, frequency, latest complete observation, expected next release window, and earliest open target date.
Due-score pass — 2026-09-11 (this pass is repeatable; no rows were modified) Checked every...
Confirmed — the Gold upgrade lifted the dataset cap, and the ledger now exists. forecast-l...