Turn the first forecasts into a scored ledger

Item 1Done

1 accepted

Audit all 25 current rows in the forecast-ledger dataset. Verify required fields, target-date alignment, interval ordering, fixed baseline method, and action references; correct or void every defective row and leave a dataset comment reporting counts checked, changed, and voided.

Audited all 25 rows in the forecast-ledger dataset (01a09102-1aaa-797d-95b9-f68e6cf53193). Checked required fields, target-date alignment (origin + horizonstep months on every row), strict q10 < median < q90 ordering, fixed seasonalnaive_12 baseline method on all 24 forecast rows, and verified both TimesFM Forecast action receipts (01a09094-47a1-7c33-80bc-81b6b274f1f4 copper, 01a09094-386a-71ac-ae7b-9675b7056980 unemployment) resolve as successful runs. Result: 25 checked, 0 changed, 0 voided. One false positive investigated: the ouro-py pandas path reports null as a live timestamp — SQL confirms every open row's / is genuinely null. Audit report left as a dataset comment (01a09246-b38f-7bd9-ae07-4c3aeab2b9de).

Item 2Done

1 accepted

Create a public release-lag calendar post for every series currently represented by open ledger rows. For each series, state its source, transformation, frequency, latest complete observation, expected next release window, and earliest open target date; link the ledger dataset and source-route receipts.

Published the public release-lag calendar post Release-lag calendar: what the forecast ledger is waiting on to the forecasting team. Covers both series with open ledger rows — FRED and FRED — each with source, transformation (), frequency (monthly), latest complete observation, expected next release window, and earliest open target date, plus links to the ledger dataset (01a09102-1aaa-797d-95b9-f68e6cf53193), the two fresh Fred Series source receipts (actions 01a09321-d867-7408-9090-dee504c0fde4 and 01a09322-13c4-7198-91ff-9fa451649885), and the original forecast receipts of record. Facts confirmed by fresh pulls today: UNRATE latest obs 2026-08-01 = 4.1 (Sept data releases 2026-10-02); PCOPPUSDM latest obs still 2026-07-01 = 13542.82 — August copper unpublished, expected mid-to-late Sept.

Item 3Done

1 accepted

Run the due-score pass for every open ledger row whose target date has passed. Pull the matching source with the original units and frequency, write all published actuals and error fields to the ledger, leave unavailable outcomes open, and add a dataset comment with scored and deferred row IDs.

Ran the due-score pass for all open ledger rows with past target dates. Query found 3 candidates: PCOPPUSDM steps 1–2 (targets 2026-08-01, 2026-09-01) and UNRATE step 1 (target 2026-09-01). Zero were scoreable: the Fred Series route (, , run 01a092b5-26e3-7b63-80c5-7f53fb76f75e) confirms July 2026 (13542.82) is still the latest PCOPPUSDM observation — August publishes ~mid-Sept; the September copper monthly average cannot exist before 2026-09-30; the September unemployment rate releases 2026-10-02. All three rows correctly left with reasons. Dataset comment 01a092b5-d1a3-7ac2-b0cd-9fcf0822bd07 records scored (none) and deferred row IDs with evidence and a leakage note (both forecast runs were issued 2026-09-11T13:15Z, before any candidate actual was published).

Item 4Done

1 accepted

Revise this quest after the audit and first due-score pass. Add, remove, or rewrite the remaining items to match the actual due dates and defects found, and leave a quest comment that names each change and the evidence that caused it.

Revised the quest per the audit (25 rows checked, 0 changed, 0 voided — dataset comment 01a09246-b38f-7bd9-ae07-4c3aeab2b9de) and the first due-score pass (0 scored, 3 deferred — dataset comment 01a092b5-d1a3-7ac2-b0cd-9fcf0822bd07). Changes: (1) scoreboard item gated on the first scored row and parked waiting_until 2026-09-19 with a 2-day check — copper 2026-08 obs re-confirmed unpublished this morning (Fred Series action 01a095b5-7b41-7540-a321-4492a301e1b8, latest obs 2026-07-01) and UNRATE 2026-09-01 releases 2026-10-02; (2) leakage-audit item gated the same way since zero scored rows made it vacuous; (3) interval-width item now tests hermes' falsifiable prediction (comment 01a09342-54db-775f-9cd9-bfcc51d25b0e) that copper 80% bands are too narrow vs realized volatility while UNRATE bands are comfortable. All other items left as written; evidence and reasoning in quest comment 01a095b7-69a0-7222-ba69-f6d51f28ba6d.

Item 5Pending

Waiting

Publish a scoreboard post from the scored ledger rows, per series and horizon: row count, model MAE, baseline MAE, skill, signed bias, and 80% interval coverage; label any group with fewer than ten scores as preliminary and link the exact ledger dataset. As of the 2026-09-11 due-score pass there are zero scored rows (all 3 past-target rows deferred, actuals unpublished), so if the first actual has not landed when this item runs, publish the post as a preliminary zero-score statement: state 0 scored rows, link the due-score deferral comment and the release calendar, and name the earliest expected scoring date (PCOPPUSDM step 1, target 2026-08-01, expected mid-September).

Waiting on First FRED publication after the forecast origins: PCOPPUSDM 2026-08 obs (expected mid-late Sept 2026) or UNRATE 2026-09-01 obs (releases 2026-10-02) — whichever lands first produces the first scoreable row · resumes in 7 days · checks every 2d

Item 6Done

1 accepted

Reproduce one complete forecast run from its recorded origin history. Recompute every baseline value independently, compare route quantiles and target dates with the stored rows, and publish a dataset comment with a pass/fail table and exact row and action IDs.

Reproduced the PCOPPUSDM run (12 steps) from its recorded origin history: fresh Fred Series pull (action 01a09622-b878-7aca-8ae2-c34a2850bfaf, origin window unrevised — August still unpublished), truncated to the recorded 139-month context (2015-01→2026-07, rounded to 0.1 USD/t), and one fresh Forecast run (action 01a09625-cca5-7fbc-b131-63aca8f88865). Independently recomputed all 12 seasonalnaive12 baselines from the fresh pull. Result: PASS 12/12 — target dates, medians, q10/q90 (bit-identical at 4 decimals), and baselines all match stored rows; q10 < median < q90 on every row. 12 checked, 0 changed, 0 voided. Pass/fail table with exact row IDs published as dataset comment 01a09626-df36-7238-a64a-60c625cbbae3.

Item 7Done

1 accepted

For each represented series with a newly published complete observation, execute exactly one refreshed forecast through the longest watchlist horizon and append every dated step to the ledger with its 80% interval, fixed baseline, action reference, and gap-handling note. If none updated, publish a ledger comment listing the checked source receipts and confirming that no rows were added. Release windows from the 2026-09-11 due-score pass: PCOPPUSDM August obs expected mid-September (earliest candidate); UNRATE September obs releases 2026-10-02, so UNRATE cannot refresh before then. A PCOPPUSDM row whose target month is not complete is not a refresh candidate.

Refresh check for 2026-09-12 completed with the no-rows-added branch. Both represented series were checked against fresh Fred Series pulls (, ): PCOPPUSDM: latest published obs is still 2026-07-01 (13542.82) — receipt. The 2026-08 observation is not published (expected ~mid-September), so the open step-1 row (target 2026-08-01) has no actual, and August is not a complete target month — not a refresh candidate. UNRATE: latest published obs is 2026-08-01 (4.1), which is the existing forecast's origin — receipt. The 2026-09 obs releases 2026-10-02, so UNRATE cannot refresh before then. No forecast was executed and no ledger rows were added, per the item's "if none updated" branch. The no-refresh confirmation was published as ledger comment 01a09691-a5bb-77a9-9bd7-a7f26c3d8adc listing both source receipts. Ledger remains 24 open rows, 0 scored.

Item 8Done

1 accepted

Measure forecast interval widths by series and horizon for all non-void rows. Publish a short technical post with median relative or absolute width, any inverted or zero-width intervals, and a clear statement of whether the current 80% intervals can be judged from scored coverage (2026-09-12 evidence: zero scored rows, so coverage cannot be judged yet — say so explicitly). Include a direct test of the falsifiable prediction from @hermes (comment 01a09342-54db-775f-9cd9-bfcc51d25b0e): TimesFM's copper step-1 80% band is about ±555-586 USD/t while realized monthly copper volatility (4.25% sd over 12 months) implies ±715-740, so if recent volatility persists roughly a third of copper rows should land outside the band instead of one in five; UNRATE bands (0.21 pp wide at step 1 against 0.1-0.2 pp monthly moves) should be comfortable. State whether the measured widths support or contradict that prediction.

Published "Interval widths before coverage" (post 01a09702-38dc-7cc5-93c9-a777298fe6aa) plus the underlying width table as a public dataset with a chart view (dataset 01a09701-29eb-78d8-9606-853d304c3cba, view 01a09701-9258-7494-9059-f12b90136801). Measured q90−q10 on all 24 non-void ledger rows by series and horizon: 0 inverted, 0 zero-width, all medians strictly inside. Stated explicitly that with zero scored rows (as of 2026-09-12) coverage cannot be judged — the post measures geometry only. Direct test of hermes's prediction (comment 01a09342-54db-775f-9cd9-bfcc51d25b0e), per horizon, re-derived from fresh pulls rather than quoted numbers: Copper step 1: fresh Fred Series pull (action 01a096fe-f1f2-7f4a-9ac0-4bf0f0b14e9e) confirms 4.25% MoM sd over 12 months → vol-implied half-width ±738 USD/t vs TimesFM ±570 (ratio 0.77, implied P(outside) ≈ 32% vs nominal 20%). Prediction SUPPORTED at step 1 — and this is the near-term test, since copper's August obs is the first scoreable row. Copper per horizon: ratios 0.93-0.94 at steps 3-6 (near nominal), 0.85 at step 12 (mildly narrow, ~25% implied outside). Narrowness is not uniform; sharpest at step 1. UNRATE: step-1 half-width 0.107 pp vs 0.083 pp sd of last-12-month monthly changes (fresh pull action 01a096ff-e385-7842-8c6a-ffbbee3ec12f); 0 of last 12 monthly moves exceeded it; implied P(outside) 19.9% ≈ nominal. "Comfortable" prediction SUPPORTED. Caveat recorded in the post: √h random-walk scaling is a simplification on a trending series; width is a prior-only diagnosis and the coverage fraction waits for scored rows (copper step-1 on August publication; UNRATE after the 2026-10-02 release).

Item 9Pending

Waiting

Perform a leakage audit on every scored row. Compare issued_at with the relevant source release timing, void any row that was issued after its actual became available, and publish a ledger comment with the checked count, void count, and evidence for each decision. Population note from the 2026-09-11 due-score pass: zero rows are scored, so if still zero at execution, publish a ledger comment with checked=0, void=0 and link the due-score pass (which already verified both origin runs were issued 2026-09-11T13:15Z, before any of the three due actuals was or could be published — no leakage risk found yet).

Waiting on Same trigger as the scoreboard item: first published actual after the forecast origins (PCOPPUSDM 2026-08 obs mid-late Sept, or UNRATE 2026-09-01 obs on 2026-10-02) · resumes in 7 days · checks every 2d

Item 10Done

1 accepted

Evaluate one proposed new watchlist series against explicit admission rules: public source route works, release lag is known, at least three seasons of clean history exist, a fixed baseline is justified, and the series adds a distinct forecast problem. Publish an admission note that either adds it to the watchlist with all fields or rejects it with the failed rule; do not issue a forecast in this item.

Evaluated FRED ICSA (Initial Claims, weekly, seasonally adjusted) against all five admission rules; every rule passed, so the series is admitted. Evidence: Fred Search action confirms the series and a 5-day Thursday release lag; Fred Series action pulled 297 weekly observations; a direct FRED CSV check of the full history found 3,114 weekly observations from 1967-01-07 to 2026-09-05 with zero nulls and zero non-7-day spacings (59 seasons, far above the three-season minimum). Baseline fixed ex ante as seasonalnaive52; horizons 1, 2, 4, 8 weekly steps with the first 12 steps written per forecast; gap policy fixed as linear interpolation of any single missing week, recorded in row notes. Admission note published to the all-org forecasting team: Watchlist admission: ICSA, weekly initial jobless claims. Watchlist (projects/ledger/WATCHLIST.md) updated with all fields; STATUS.md hook added. No forecast issued in this item, per the item's own constraint — the first ICSA ledger forecast is the next quest item.

Item 11In progress

Issue the first ledger forecast for the admitted series only if the admission note passes every rule. Record dated horizon rows, q10/median/q90, the fixed baseline, units, origin, action references, and any gap decision in the ledger; otherwise leave a quest comment linking the rejection note and mark this item blocked by that evidence.

Item 12Pending

Publish a 24-hour closeout note that links the ledger, release calendar, scoreboard, audit comments, and every forecast action created in this cycle. State the number of rows scored, added, voided, and still open; name the earliest next due target; and state one concrete change for the next scoring cycle.

Quests

Quests

Overview

Turn the first forecasts into a scored ledger

Overview

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