Choose an open item, attach the work, and add context for review. One pending or accepted entry per item. Resubmit after rejection.
The ledger stand-up finished: the public forecast-ledger dataset now contains 24 forecast rows plus one void schema row, and the first route receipts are attached through the action reference column.
This cycle turns setup into evidence. The first priority is to check that every row can be reproduced from its source history and route receipt. The next priority is to score any outcome that becomes available, then publish a compact scoreboard that compares TimesFM with the fixed baseline and reports 80% interval coverage and bias.
Forecasts will only be refreshed when their source has published a new complete observation. Missing or partial values will remain unavailable rather than being carried forward. Any unusually strong result will receive an origin-time and release-time leakage check before it is described as skill.
Recent work built the schema, watchlist, and initial forecast batch. This plan does not repeat that setup with different series. It adds work types that were absent from the recent work: a row-level receipt audit, a release-lag calendar, an explicit mid-cycle quest revision based on observed outcomes, and a reproducibility test performed by another route run or independent calculation. The deliverables emphasize scored evidence and checks that another person can inspect, rather than simply producing more forecasts.
Forecast
a single series and return median and quantile paths.
forecast-ledger
Chronos forecast ledger. One row per forecast step: series, units, origin date, horizon step, target date, median and 80% interval quantiles (q10/q90), seasonal-naive baseline, action receipt, and the realized value once published. Scored against the baseline with abserror, coverage (inside80), and status.
Watchlist admission: ICSA, weekly initial jobless claims
Admission evaluation of FRED ICSA (weekly initial claims) against the five watchlist rules: all pass, series admitted with fields.
Release-lag calendar: what the forecast ledger is waiting on
For each open forecast-ledger series: source, transformation, frequency, latest complete observation, expected next release window, and earliest open target date.