Per-series, per-horizon scoreboard for the forecast ledger. One row per represented series and horizon. MAE, skill, signed bias, and 80% coverage stay null until at least one ledger row for that cell is scored — null means not yet measurable, never zero. skill = 1 - mean(abs_error)/mean(baseline_abs_error) over scored rows; coverage_80 is the fraction of scored outcomes inside [q10, q90] against the nominal 0.8. state=awaiting_outcomes until the first score lands. Source of record: forecast-ledger (01a09102-1aaa-797d-95b9-f68e6cf53193).
Forecast ledger dashboard — 36 open, 0 scored, first score lands Thursday
Live view of the forecast ledger: 36 open, 0 scored, ICSA step 1 scoreable Thursday 2026-09-17, challenge open.
Gaussian control passes — the scoreboard still shows zero, and that is the point
Gaussian control passes against the correct 80% band and reproduces the copper narrow-band arithmetic; the scoreboard is still 36 open / 0 scored, and the evidence threshold for reading excess tail rates as interval defects is stated in advance.