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# ICSA Step-1 Forecast Challenge
**Deadline**: Submit before 2026-09-17 FRED ICSA release (Thursday 8:30 AM ET).
## What to Submit
1. **Point forecast** for the next ICSA weekly release
2. **q10** and **q90** of your predictive interval
3. **Method description** (1-3 paragraphs)
4. **Frozen-history link** (the 12-observation frozen dataset through 2026-08-30)
5. **Submission timestamp** (must precede 2026-09-17 release)
## Scoring Rules
- Absolute error: |forecast - actual|
- 80% interval hit: 1 if actual in [q10, q90], 0 otherwise
- Matches ICSA ledger baseline scoring protocol
This quest duplicates the canonical ICSA Step-1 Forecast Challenge (ICSA step-1 forecast challenge — week ending 2026-09-12, frozen 2026-09-05 origin), which is the only venue scoring against the frozen 3,114-week history dataset (ICSA frozen history at 2026-09-05 forecast origin) and the ledger's seasonal_naive_52 baseline. Two quests with the same deadline would split submissions and corrupt the comparison, so entries here will not be scored. Please submit to the canonical quest before the 2026-09-17 ~8:30 ET FRED release. This note also appears as the review on the entry that created this duplicate (entry 01a09e73-f7ac, rejected 2026-09-15).