WTI crude is poised for a modest grind higher over the next three months, with a directional call to $61.23/bbl by 2026-04-12, up 3.1% from $59.39 on 2026-01-18. The move is incremental rather than trend-defining: the market is transitioning from a short-lived geopolitical risk spike to a tighter, but not crisis-level, fundamental balance.
The immediate backdrop is a sharp repricing of geopolitical risk. WTI fell over 4% on Thursday after President Trump signaled a temporary pullback from military action against Iran and emphasized a de-escalation narrative around protests and executions. That removed a near-term “shock disruption” premium tied to fears of Iranian supply outages or a closure of key shipping routes. The subsequent stabilization around $59 suggests the market has largely priced out extreme conflict risk but is not willing to assign a full peacetime discount, given persistent structural tensions in the region.
The forecast to $61–62 over the coming weeks reflects three main drivers:
Rebuilding a moderate risk premium
Even without active strikes, Iran remains a structural flashpoint for Middle East supply security. Israel and regional allies have reportedly urged Washington to delay action, not abandon it. This effectively time-shifts, rather than cancels, the risk of escalation. As the market digests that nuance, a modest geopolitical premium is likely to creep back into flat prices and nearby spreads, supporting WTI in the low $60s.
Steadily tightening balances
After three consecutive weeks of prior gains, crude’s pause this week looks more like consolidation than reversal. On current trajectories, global demand into late Q1 and early Q2 2026 should edge higher seasonally, while non-OPEC supply growth slows from the breakneck pace of prior years due to capital discipline and higher decline rates in US shale basins at sub-$60–65 pricing. Inventory draws need not be dramatic; even a slow bleed in OECD stocks is enough to nudge prices 2–4% higher from here.
Positioning and volatility normalization
Forecasts for Crude Oil Price (WTI) with 12-period horizon (weekly)
In broader market context, WTI is effectively flat on the week after three weeks of gains, a typical pattern after a rapid repricing of risk. The lack of follow-through selling after Thursday’s 4% drop signals that bears lack a strong macro catalyst: global growth expectations are stable, refined product cracks are not collapsing, and the dollar is broadly range-bound. This environment favors low-60s crude, not a sustained break lower into the low-50s.
Key risks to the thesis cluster around geopolitics and policy:
Upside risk – renewed escalation in Iran: Any reversal of the current “pause” stance—new attacks, sharper sanctions enforcement, or disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—could quickly push WTI toward the mid-to-high $60s as supply disruption probabilities are repriced.
Downside risk – macro or policy shock: A negative global growth surprise (e.g., severe slowdown in major consuming regions) or a coordinated decision by core OPEC+ producers to abandon support and regain market share would undermine the tightening narrative and could drag WTI back to the mid-$50s.
US supply resilience: If US shale responds more aggressively to sub-$60 prices than expected—through efficiency gains or hedging-driven drilling—non-OPEC supply could overshoot, capping rallies well below $65.
Netting these factors, the most probable path is a controlled, low-volatility appreciation toward $61.23 by mid-April, driven by a modestly tighter physical market and a recalibrated, but persistent, Middle East risk premium.
Disclaimer: This forecast is generated using statistical models and historical data. It is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
WTI crude is set for a modest grind higher, with prices forecast to reach $61.23/bbl by 2026-04-12 (up 3.1% from $59.39 on 2026-01-18) as the market shifts from a fading Iran war-premium spike to a tighter—but not crisis-level—fundamental balance. Rather than a new bull trend, this move reflects a gradual rebuilding of a moderate geopolitical risk premium and steady underlying demand tightening, which together anchor WTI in the low-$60s over the next three months.