Silver futures: explosive upside continuation into late April, targeting 373.13 (+224% from 115.08) by the week of 2026‑04‑26, with a highly volatile path but a firmly bullish skew.
The recent 25% plunge toward $84/oz is best viewed as a violent but ultimately corrective shakeout following the spike to a record $122. Price action is consistent with a blow‑off leg in a young secular bull market rather than the end of the move. A 224.2% rally over the next 12 weeks implies an annualized pace that is extreme, but the underlying drivers—monetary, geopolitical, and physical—support a step-change repricing of silver rather than a marginal repricing.
The core driver is the regime shift in macro and policy expectations. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair points toward a less predictable and more politically influenced monetary framework. Markets will price a wider distribution of outcomes for real rates and the dollar. Silver, with its dual monetary and industrial identity, historically responds asymmetrically to such regime uncertainty: once positioning clears out, each new macro shock tends to drive incremental “fear bids” into the complex. The 30%+ monthly gain despite Friday’s selloff underscores that large capital pools are actively reallocating into silver, not just trading it tactically.
Geopolitics harden this bid. Tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, spillover pressure on Mexico, and an escalating US‑Iran confrontation create multiple supply-chain and inflation channels. Higher transport and energy costs, plus the risk of sanctions or disruptions, raise the probability of cost‑push inflation globally. Silver benefits both as an inflation hedge and as a critical industrial input. Tehran’s threat of “swift response” keeps a persistent risk premium in commodities more broadly, and silver participates in that complex.
On the physical side, record investment inflows and strong industrial demand are tightening the market precisely as macro hedging demand accelerates. At recent levels, silver’s total market value remains small relative to global financial assets; even modest incremental flows from institutional portfolios can drive outsized price moves. A move from 115.08 to 373.13 implies a re‑rating of silver’s role in portfolios rather than a proportional move with gold. Given the historically depressed silver‑to‑gold ratio prior to this run, catch‑up dynamics add fuel.
Forecasts for Silver Futures with 12-period horizon (weekly)
Market context also favors a convex upside path. The weaker US dollar amplifies commodity beta, while volatility in broader risk assets increases the appeal of hard assets with both defensive (monetary) and cyclical (industrial) features. Silver’s prior breakout to $122 created a new reference point for momentum strategies and systematic trend followers; once the current correction stabilizes, rule‑based capital will likely re‑enter aggressively on any break back above the $120–$130 band, reinforcing the move toward the mid‑$300s.
Main risks center on policy and positioning. A credible, market‑friendly policy pivot by the incoming Fed leadership—including clearer inflation control and reduced political interference—could stabilize real yields and the dollar, compressing silver’s monetary premium. A rapid de‑escalation in US‑Iran tensions and rollback of tariff threats would reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in metals. On the micro side, a parabolic move toward 373.13 risks eliciting a strong supply response from miners and recyclers, as well as regulatory scrutiny if speculative activity is judged excessive. Finally, if leveraged longs rebuild too quickly after the recent flush, another sharp liquidation could create deep interim drawdowns even if the 373.13 target is ultimately reached.
Disclaimer: This forecast is generated using statistical models and historical data. It is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Silver is primed for an explosive upside continuation into late April, with futures projected to surge roughly 224% from 115.08 to 373.13 by the week of 2026‑04‑26, as the recent 25% plunge toward $84/oz marks a violent but corrective shakeout within a young secular bull rather than a top. A regime shift in macro and policy expectations under a Kevin Warsh Fed, compounded by escalating geopolitical and supply‑chain stress, is driving a step‑change repricing in silver where each new shock fuels asymmetric “fear bids” and sustained allocation from large capital pools.