Gold futures: bullish continuation with consolidation risk. From 5,079.7 on 2026‑02‑01, futures are expected to advance to 5,877.97 by 2026‑04‑26, a gain of roughly 15.7%. The current drawdown toward 4,900 is framed as a corrective shakeout within a powerful, policy‑ and geopolitics‑driven uptrend rather than the start of a cyclical top.
Forecasts for Gold Futures with 12-period horizon (weekly)
The key driver remains a regime shift in macro and policy rather than a simple risk‑off move. Gold has already logged six consecutive monthly gains and its strongest run since the 1980s, anchored by three reinforcing forces:
Structural dollar weakness. A sustained slide in the US dollar has mechanically boosted dollar‑denominated bullion and increased its appeal as a reserve diversifier. With the administration openly pressuring for easier financial conditions and tariffs now weaponized in foreign policy, the probability of a weaker‑for‑longer dollar remains high. This environment historically supports multi‑quarter gold bull markets, not one‑off spikes.
Escalating geopolitical risk with no clear off‑ramp. The tariff order targeting countries supplying oil to Cuba tightens the nexus between trade policy, energy flows, and regional politics, adding risk premia on several fronts simultaneously. Additional pressure on Mexico broadens the sphere of uncertainty into North American supply chains. In parallel, tensions with Iran are intensifying: Washington is publicly pushing for nuclear talks while Tehran is signaling retaliation. This is a textbook backdrop for sustained safe‑haven demand, especially when tail risks cluster rather than appear in isolation.
Monetary policy uncertainty under a new Fed leadership trajectory. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair ends a leadership vacuum but increases uncertainty around the reaction function. Warsh has historically leaned more rules‑based and skeptical of unconventional policy, yet he is assuming the role under a president who vocally favors looser conditions and is willing to challenge institutional norms. Markets will price a higher risk of political influence on the Fed, reinforcing demand for assets outside the fiat system. Even if the near‑term policy path is not dramatically easier, the perceived credibility premium of gold versus paper assets rises.
The recent 8% tumble toward 4,900 is best read as a crowded positioning flush after the surge to a 5,608 record. The scale of prior gains set the stage for mechanical profit‑taking, margin‑related selling, and short‑term CTA de‑risking. That type of move typically relieves overbought conditions, resets leverage, and allows a trend to re‑establish on more durable footing. With prices still deeply positive on a six‑month horizon, the pullback looks like a volatility event within an intact bull phase.
The path to 5,877.97 likely involves a period of choppy consolidation between roughly 4,800 and 5,300 over the next several weeks, followed by a renewed breakout as the policy and geopolitical narratives fail to normalize. Persistent inflows into gold‑linked products and the improving “carry” versus negative or low‑real‑yield sovereign debt further underwrite the upside case.
The main risks to this thesis are:
A rapid de‑escalation in US‑Iran tensions or a credible diplomatic breakthrough that compresses safe‑haven premia.
An unexpected reversal in the dollar, driven by a more orthodox, hawkish‑than‑feared Fed stance under Warsh that restores policy credibility and lifts real yields.
Policy missteps that trigger a disorderly selloff in broader risk assets severe enough to force liquidation of gold holdings to meet margin calls, overpowering safe‑haven inflows in the short run.
Regulatory or taxation changes targeting precious‑metal investment vehicles that dampen institutional participation.
Absent one of these shock scenarios, the dominant forces point to gold re‑challenging and marginally exceeding prior highs into late April, aligning with the 5,878 target.
Disclaimer: This forecast is generated using statistical models and historical data. It is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Gold futures are projected to extend their powerful policy‑ and geopolitics‑driven bull run from 5,079.7 on 2026‑02‑01 to 5,877.97 by 2026‑04‑26—an anticipated gain of roughly 15.7%—with any drawdown toward 4,900 viewed as a corrective shakeout rather than the start of a top. A structurally weaker dollar, rising geopolitical risk tied to weaponized tariffs and energy flows, and a pro‑easier‑conditions policy bias together argue for a multi‑quarter upside regime rather than a fleeting risk‑off spike.