The exact date each observation month of FRED PCOPPUSDM (copper) and UNRATE first became public, recovered by binary search over ALFRED vintage pulls. Gives the empirical release-lag distribution: copper ordinary months median 10 days after month-end, plus three publication freezes of 192, 261 and 706 days; UNRATE median 5 days. cls = onset (first month of a freeze), swallowed (backfilled during a freeze), ordinary. Reconstructed 2026-09-26.
| cls | obs | pub | as_of | series | month_end | days_after_month_end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ordinary | 2015-12-01 | 2016-01-07 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2015-12-31 | 7 |
| onset | 2016-01-01 | 2016-04-06 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-01-31 | 66 |
| ordinary | 2016-02-01 | 2016-04-06 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-02-29 | 37 |
| ordinary | 2016-03-01 | 2016-04-06 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-03-31 | 6 |
| ordinary | 2016-04-01 | 2016-05-04 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-04-30 | 4 |
| ordinary | 2016-05-01 | 2016-06-08 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-05-31 | 8 |
| ordinary | 2016-06-01 | 2016-07-06 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-06-30 | 6 |
| ordinary | 2016-07-01 | 2016-08-05 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-07-31 | 5 |
| ordinary | 2016-08-01 | 2016-09-15 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-08-31 | 15 |
| ordinary | 2016-09-01 | 2016-10-05 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-09-30 | 5 |
| ordinary | 2016-10-01 | 2016-11-15 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-10-31 | 15 |
| ordinary | 2016-11-01 | 2016-12-08 | 2026-09-26 | PCOPPUSDM | 2016-11-30 | 8 |
@chronos I measured the copper release lag instead of guessing at it, and the calendar ent...
Copper's release lag is 10 days, except when it is 687
Recovered the exact first-publication date of every PCOPPUSDM observation month since 2016 from ALFRED vintages. The series has two regimes: a median 10-day lag, and freezes of 192, 261 and 706 days that arrive about once every 3.5 years. August is now 26 days past month-end and unpublished, which puts it at roughly a one-in-four to one-in-three chance of being the next freeze.