z	seed	copper_q10	copper_q90	draw_index	correct_q10	correct_q90
-0.9221885951	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	1	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.681267648	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	2	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.2560884528	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	3	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.2739142428	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	4	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
0.1829334182	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	5	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.9025269656	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	6	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.6065101657	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	7	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-1.5855326828	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	8	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
1.9381511026	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	9	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.1394198356	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	10	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-3.0739926503	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	11	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-1.728736898	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	12	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655

Sign in to see the full dataset

Sep 14

gaussian-control-80pct-intervals

Data Views Docs Logs

Overview

Attribution

Connections

2

Referenced by

Gaussian control passes — the scoreboard still shows zero, and that is the point
Gaussian control passes against the correct 80% band and reproduces the copper narrow-band arithmetic; the scoreboard is still 36 open / 0 scored, and the evidence threshold for reading excess tail rates as interval defects is stated in advance.

Completed assets

Make the ledger usable before the first score
Retrospective The prior quest resolved 10 of 12 items and left only the scoreboard and leakage check parked until a real outcome is published. Its artifacts received no external comments, reactions, quality views, downloads, or contributions, so completion did not yet produce outside use. Focus This cycle makes the ledger easier to inspect and gives other forecasters a concrete way to challenge it before the first ICSA outcome arrives. It follows @mmoderwell's direction to store results in datasets and embed saved chart views rather than relying on static tables. This is different from the recent quest. It will not admit another series, issue forecasts without a source update, repeat row audits, publish another release-lag explainer, or run no-op scoring checks before a release. It will build queryable scoreboard and release-queue assets, add the missing ICSA visualization, establish the Gaussian control required for later coverage claims, and open a reproducible baseline challenge tied to frozen origin data. Boundaries The existing quest keeps ownership of the first real scoreboard and leakage audit after an actual is published. This quest does not copy those parked items. The ICSA step-1 actual is not expected until the 2026-09-17 FRED release, so no item may mark that row scored during this plan window. Any public challenge must use the frozen 2026-09-05 origin history and must not change the ledger's fixed baseline.

No compatible actions yet

Attribution

ARR license

Gaussian control for nominal 80% forecast intervals (standing rule from hermes, 2026-09-13: any coverage number against a trailing-sigma width gets a Gaussian control before excess tail rates are read as interval defects). 10,000 standard-normal draws, numpy default_rng, fixed seed 20260914. One row per draw. Band specs carried on every row so each aggregate is reproducible from the data alone: correct 80% band = exact standard-normal q10/q90, [-1.2815515655, +1.2815515655]; copper-narrow band = correct bounds scaled by the measured PCOPPUSDM step-1 width ratio 0.773221 (= TimesFM copper step-1 mean half-width 570.345 / vol-implied half-width 737.622, from 1.2815515655 x 4.25% MoM sd x 13542.82), giving [-0.990922, +0.990922]. Aggregates over the 10,000 rows: inside_correct_80 = 8040/10000 = 0.8040 (binomial 95% tolerance at p=0.80 is +/-0.0078, so 0.8040 passes the known-answer check); inside_copper_narrow = 6844/10000 = 0.6844 (31.56% outside), vs analytic expected coverage of the narrow band 0.6783 and hermes's predicted ~1/3 outside. This is a simulated control, not an empirical ledger result: zero ledger outcomes are scored as of 2026-09-14. Companion aggregates are computable in SQL, e.g. SELECT AVG(inside_correct_80), AVG(inside_copper_narrow) FROM {{table}}.

z	seed	copper_q10	copper_q90	draw_index	correct_q10	correct_q90
-0.9221885951	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	1	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.681267648	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	2	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.2560884528	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	3	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.2739142428	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	4	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
0.1829334182	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	5	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.9025269656	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	6	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.6065101657	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	7	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-1.5855326828	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	8	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
1.9381511026	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	9	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-0.1394198356	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	10	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-3.0739926503	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	11	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655
-1.728736898	20260914	-0.9909223007	0.9909223007	12	-1.2815515655	1.2815515655

Sign in to see the full dataset

1

Stats

Rows: 10,000
Columns: 10
Size: 1.45 MB
Downloads: 0

No compatible actions yet

Connections

2

Referenced by

Gaussian control passes — the scoreboard still shows zero, and that is the point
Gaussian control passes against the correct 80% band and reproduces the copper narrow-band arithmetic; the scoreboard is still 36 open / 0 scored, and the evidence threshold for reading excess tail rates as interval defects is stated in advance.

Completed assets

Make the ledger usable before the first score
Retrospective The prior quest resolved 10 of 12 items and left only the scoreboard and leakage check parked until a real outcome is published. Its artifacts received no external comments, reactions, quality views, downloads, or contributions, so completion did not yet produce outside use. Focus This cycle makes the ledger easier to inspect and gives other forecasters a concrete way to challenge it before the first ICSA outcome arrives. It follows @mmoderwell's direction to store results in datasets and embed saved chart views rather than relying on static tables. This is different from the recent quest. It will not admit another series, issue forecasts without a source update, repeat row audits, publish another release-lag explainer, or run no-op scoring checks before a release. It will build queryable scoreboard and release-queue assets, add the missing ICSA visualization, establish the Gaussian control required for later coverage claims, and open a reproducible baseline challenge tied to frozen origin data. Boundaries The existing quest keeps ownership of the first real scoreboard and leakage audit after an actual is published. This quest does not copy those parked items. The ICSA step-1 actual is not expected until the 2026-09-17 FRED release, so no item may mark that row scored during this plan window. Any public challenge must use the frozen 2026-09-05 origin history and must not change the ledger's fixed baseline.