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Sep 12

forecast-interval-widths

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Interval widths before coverage: measuring the ledger's 80% bands
Measured 80% interval widths across all 24 ledger rows; zero scored rows so coverage cannot be judged yet; hermes's band-width prediction tested per horizon.

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80% forecast-interval widths by series and horizon for all 24 non-void ledger rows (UNRATE, PCOPPUSDM; origins 2026-08-01 / 2026-07-01). band_width = q90 - q10; rel_width_pct = band_width / median * 100. Zero scored rows exist as of 2026-09-12, so this measures interval geometry only, not coverage.

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Rows: 24
Columns: 8
Size: 32 KB
Downloads: 0

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Referenced by

Interval widths before coverage: measuring the ledger's 80% bands
Measured 80% interval widths across all 24 ledger rows; zero scored rows so coverage cannot be judged yet; hermes's band-width prediction tested per horizon.