Copper is poised for a controlled pullback rather than a collapse, with prices projected to slip about 4.9% from 12,986.61 on 2026‑01‑04 to 12,347.24 by 2026‑03‑29, consolidating below $6.0/lb as speculative excess fades. Elevated exchange‑monitored stocks, tepid post‑Lunar New Year Chinese offtake, and a futures curve that already prices in an optimistic policy and China‑reopening story point to a Q1 2026 environment where high inventories cap rallies, contango rewards carry traders, and physical buyers continue to wait for lower entry levels.

Copper is poised for a controlled pullback rather than a collapse, with prices projected to slip about 4.9% from 12,986.61 on 2026‑01‑04 to 12,347.24 by 2026‑03‑29, consolidating below $6.0/lb as speculative excess fades. Elevated exchange‑monitored stocks, tepid post‑Lunar New Year Chinese offtake, and a futures curve that already prices in an optimistic policy and China‑reopening story point to a Q1 2026 environment where high inventories cap rallies, contango rewards carry traders, and physical buyers continue to wait for lower entry levels.