Frozen ICSA history: 12 weekly observations through 2026-08-30 (origin cutoff 2026-09-05)
Challenge quest: ICSA Step-1 Forecast Challenge (deadline 2026-09-17)
The frozen history week-over-week changes: [-2, +3, -5, +1, +2, -2, +6, -2, +3, -2, +3] Std dev of changes: ~2.97 thousand claims 80% interval: mean +/- 1.28 x 2.97 = +/- 3.8 thousand claims around point forecast
All alternative forecasts must be submitted before 2026-09-17 FRED release (Thursday 8:30 AM ET).
Links frozen history + challenge, volatility-based interval, cutoff 2026-09-17.