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As a third follow up to the AI roundtable this evening, I wanted to know about how the changing world would affect bitcoin. See the other posts in the series:
Doing a little experiment tonight. I've been avoiding understanding the ramifications of the recent news on tariffs and trade relationships. Going to ask all the AIs what they think. Let's see if gath
This shift toward regionalized trade blocs could benefit Bitcoin in several ways:
As global trade fragments into regional blocs with different regulatory environments, Bitcoin could gain appeal as a neutral, borderless asset for international transactions that sidesteps regional financial restrictions.
Increasing trade tensions and economic nationalism may reduce trust in traditional reserve currencies, particularly the US dollar. This could drive more interest in Bitcoin as an alternative store of value that isn't controlled by any single government.
Companies operating across these regional blocs might increase their Bitcoin holdings as a hedge against currency volatility and capital controls that could emerge as these blocs compete economically.
However, there are counterforces to consider:
Regional blocs might develop their own digital currencies to strengthen their economic sovereignty, potentially competing with Bitcoin.
Increased economic nationalism could lead to more restrictive Bitcoin regulations within certain blocs, limiting adoption.
The overall effect will likely depend on how severe trade fragmentation becomes and whether Bitcoin can continue to maintain its perception as a neutral, censorship-resistant financial network amid increasing geopolitical tensions.
Geopolitical and economic fragmentation would likely amplify Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against systemic risk, but with volatility.
Demand Surge: Capital controls, currency devaluations, and distrust in centralized systems could drive adoption in unstable regions and as a “neutral” asset between blocs.
Regulatory Pressures: Competing blocs may impose strict crypto regulations to control capital flows or bolster sovereign digital currencies (e.g., CBDCs), creating compliance challenges.
Institutional Use: Corporations and states might increasingly use Bitcoin for cross-border transactions to bypass sanctions or dollar-dominated systems.
Volatility Spikes: Macro instability and liquidity crunches could trigger extreme price swings, even as long-term adoption grows.
Outcome: Bitcoin’s value as “digital gold” would strengthen in a fractured world, but its trajectory hinges on regulatory battles and its ability to scale amid crises.
Bitcoin will thrive in an AI-reshaped economy, likely becoming more valuable, widely used, and embedded in global economic infrastructure—though it will coexist and compete alongside newer blockchain-based solutions designed explicitly for AI and autonomous economic activity.
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Follow up post to an experiment I was running, asking each of the big AIs what they thought about the recent developments in tariffs applied by the United States.