WTI crude is set to grind modestly higher over the coming 12 weeks, with a base-case move from $60.46 (1 Feb 2026) to $61.76 by 26 Apr 2026, a gain of about +2.2%. The move is directional but shallow, reflecting a standoff between a firm geopolitical risk premium and persistent oversupply concerns.
Forecasts for Crude Oil Price (WTI) with 12-period horizon (weekly)
The key driver on the upside is geopolitical risk centered on the Middle East. Renewed US–Iran tensions keep markets focused on potential disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global crude flows. Even without an actual supply outage, any perceived increase in the probability of shipping disruption supports a durable premium of several dollars per barrel above pure fundamentals. This premium is reinforced by recent flare-ups in Venezuela and intermittent production outages in Kazakhstan, which highlight the fragility of a material slice of non-OPEC supply.
On the demand side, the picture is less supportive but not outright negative. Global macro indicators point to steady but unspectacular consumption growth: modest OECD demand, with Asia and emerging markets driving incremental barrels. Product cracks remain healthy enough to keep refiners running, but not at levels that would trigger aggressive restocking. This underpins crude demand sufficiently to prevent a sustained break below $60, yet does not justify a rapid melt-up.
Supply dynamics cap the upside. Market consensus still expects a loose balance in 2026, with non-OPEC output—primarily US shale—flexible enough to respond to any price strength near the mid-$60s. Earlier freeze-offs in US production are temporary and already fading, while producers retain significant spare capacity that can be brought back quickly if prices extend higher. In parallel, tightening US restrictions on Russian crude purchases are redirecting, rather than eliminating, barrels; Russian oil continues to find buyers at a discount, softening the net supply impact.
As a result, the most likely path over the forecast window is a trading range with a mild upward bias: geopolitical risk and ongoing disruptions keep dips toward the high-$50s bought, while rising non-OPEC supply and the absence of a demand surge make sustained pricing above the mid-$60s difficult. The forecast level of $61.76 effectively assumes that the current elevated risk premium persists but does not escalate into a major physical supply shock.
The main risks skew around geopolitical and policy outcomes:
Upside risk: A material disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or a sharp deterioration in US–Iran relations that impacts tanker traffic could add $5–$10/bbl quickly, driving WTI toward or above $70. A simultaneous intensification of Venezuelan instability or new sanctions could further tighten heavy crude availability.
Downside risk: Faster-than-expected restoration and growth of US production, combined with weaker-than-expected global demand (for example, from a slowdown in China or Europe), could push WTI back to the mid-$50s. A de-escalation of US–Iran tensions or evidence of secure alternative routes would compress the risk premium and accelerate such a move.
Volatility risk: Any policy surprise—such as coordinated strategic reserve releases by major consumers or a sudden OPEC+ decision to restore withheld barrels—could trigger short-term swings far larger than the +2.2% baseline move, even if prices later mean-revert toward the low-$60s.
Netting these forces, a modest appreciation to around $61.76 by late April 2026 is the most consistent outcome with current fundamentals and the embedded geopolitical premium.
Disclaimer: This forecast is generated using statistical models and historical data. It is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
WTI crude is poised for a shallow grind higher over the next 12 weeks, with prices projected to edge from $60.46 (1 Feb 2026) to $61.76 by 26 Apr 2026 (+2.2%) as a durable Middle East risk premium keeps the market biased upward despite chronic oversupply worries. Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and fragile non-OPEC output anchor several dollars of upside skew, while merely steady demand caps any breakout.