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This report uses current and projected U.S. macroeconomic and housing data to evaluate whether it is better, on average, to buy a home now or wait 6–12 months.
Bottom-line view: Assuming you are otherwise financially ready (stable income, sufficient savings, and a multi‑year time horizon in the home), current data point to buying now as the better risk–reward tradeoff than waiting.
The core reasons:
Mortgage rates are projected to drift higher, not lower.
Home prices are expected to be roughly flat to slightly higher, not meaningfully cheaper.
The broader economy and labor market look relatively stable, so a deep downturn that would create large price discounts appears unlikely in the near term.
The rest of this report explains how the data support that conclusion and what you should consider before acting.
Based on our analysis of the current and projected market, we recommend that you buy now rather than wait 6–12 months, assuming you are otherwise financially ready. We see borrowing costs drifting higher rather than lower, while home prices are expected to hold roughly steady, which means affordability is more likely to worsen than improve with time. At the same time, economic and labor-market conditions look relatively stable, so we do not anticipate the kind of sharp downturn that would create widespread price discounts in the near term. Taken together, we judge that locking in today’s conditions offers a better risk–reward tradeoff than waiting in hopes of only modest, uncertain improvements later.
Home Price Index (Case‑Shiller, CSUSHPISA)
Current: 327.64
6‑month forecast: 329.59
12‑month forecast: 329.13
These projections imply very low single‑digit price changes (roughly flat) over the next year. The market is not priced for a major correction; instead, baseline expectations are for sideways to slightly upward movement in national average home prices.
Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S)
Current: 4.10 million annual rate
6‑ and 12‑month forecasts: roughly 4.08 million
Sales volumes are projected to be broadly stable, not collapsing. That suggests a market where higher mortgage rates have cooled demand but not enough to produce widespread distress or forced selling.
Housing Starts (HOUST)
Current: 1,307k annual rate
6‑ and 12‑month forecasts: about 1,351k
New construction is expected to increase slightly, adding some supply, but the change is modest. This does not point to a flood of new homes that would radically shift the balance of power from sellers to buyers.
CPI: Housing (CUSR0000SEHA)
Current: 438.32
6‑month forecast: 434.90
12‑month forecast: 434.60
This index suggests housing inflation (including rents) is easing slightly. That’s a positive sign for renters in the short term, but the decline is modest—not a collapse.
Overall market picture:
Prices: Elevated, but not expected to drop meaningfully.
Supply: Tight but gradually improving.
Rents: Inflation cooling, not plunging.
In this environment, waiting does not come with a high probability of materially lower home prices, based on current forecasts.
Timeframe | value |
|---|---|
Now | 6.22% |
In 6 months | 6.55% |
In 12 months | 6.6% |
Observed and forecasted housing market data for December 2025 (monthly).
30‑Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US)
Current: 6.22%
6‑month forecast: 6.55%
12‑month forecast: 6.60%
Federal Funds Rate (DFF) – the key short‑term policy rate:
Current: 3.89%
6‑month forecast: 5.19%
12‑month forecast: 5.16%
10‑Year Treasury Yield (DGS10) – a major benchmark for mortgage pricing:
Current: 4.09%
6‑month forecast: 4.17%
12‑month forecast: 4.21%
All three rate measures are projected to be higher in 6–12 months than they are today. Because 30‑year mortgage rates are tightly linked to the 10‑year Treasury yield and broader rate expectations, this supports the view that waiting is more likely to mean a higher mortgage rate, not a lower one.
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE)
Current: 4.4%
6‑month forecast: 4.23%
12‑month forecast: 4.33%
These projections are remarkably stable. They do not indicate a sharp rise in unemployment or a major recession in the base case. A stable labor market:
Supports household incomes and credit quality.
Reduces the likelihood of a wave of foreclosures or forced selling that would push home prices down dramatically.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Current: 21,111.9
6‑month forecast: 20,943.42
12‑month forecast: 20,917.8
Spending is expected to soften slightly, consistent with higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions, but not collapse.
Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT)
Current: 53.6
6‑month forecast: 54.92
12‑month forecast: 54.75
Sentiment is very low by historical standards, but projected to edge up, not deteriorate. Consumers feel cautious but not panicked.
Rates: Upward drift in policy rates, Treasury yields, and mortgage rates.
Economy: Slowing, but no sharp downturn assumed in the baseline.
Labor market: Stable unemployment, suggesting continued ability to service mortgages for most households.
This combination does not align with a scenario of rapidly falling home prices. Instead, it points toward steady prices and gradually higher borrowing costs—a configuration that generally favors buying sooner rather than later, if you are financially prepared.
Based on the data:
Home prices (nationally): Expected to be roughly flat to slightly higher over the next year.
Mortgage rates: Expected to rise from 6.22% to ~6.5–6.6%.
Rents (proxied by CPI: Housing): Expected to ease slightly, not crash.
So if you wait 6–12 months, the most likely scenario (not guaranteed) is:
You pay a similar price for the home itself.
You face a higher mortgage rate, and thus a higher monthly payment.
You may get slightly better rent dynamics in the meantime, but probably not enough to offset higher long‑term ownership costs.
Assume:
Home price: $400,000
Down payment: 20% ($80,000)
Loan amount: $320,000
30‑year fixed mortgage
If you buy now (6.22%):
Approximate principal & interest: ~$1,950–$1,975 per month
If you wait and rates rise to 6.6%:
Approximate principal & interest: ~$2,025–$2,050 per month
That is a difference on the order of $75–$100 more per month for the same house at roughly the same price, simply because the interest rate is higher.
Over just the first 5 years, that extra $75–$100 per month totals about $4,500–$6,000 in additional payments, and over the full 30 years, the difference in total interest paid is much larger.
If home prices rose even slightly while you waited, the payment gap would widen further.
If you delay buying:
You retain flexibility and avoid transaction costs for now.
You can build savings for a larger down payment, which can help offset higher rates.
With housing CPI projected to edge lower, your rent increases may moderate, or in some markets, rents could even decline modestly.
However:
You do not build home equity during the waiting period.
If home prices hold steady or rise and your rent doesn’t fall much, the financial benefit of waiting may be small or even negative when higher mortgage rates are factored in.
Given the forecasts:
The main swing factor between now and a year from now is mortgage rates, not home prices.
Therefore, for someone who is otherwise ready to buy and plans to stay in the home for many years, locking in a still‑lower rate today is likely more advantageous than gambling on modest and uncertain changes in prices or rents.
Forecasts are always uncertain. Key risks that could alter the balance between buying now and waiting include:
Deeper‑than‑expected recession
If the economy weakens sharply and unemployment rises well above the ~4.3% forecast, housing demand could fall and home prices could decline more meaningfully than projected.
In such a scenario, waiting might allow you to buy at a lower price—though it also increases personal job‑loss risk.
Policy or credit tightening in housing
Stricter lending standards or changes to tax policy could reduce purchasing power and pressure prices downward, especially in overheated markets.
Stubborn inflation and higher‑than‑forecast rates
If inflation proves sticky, the Federal Reserve may have to keep rates higher for longer, pushing mortgage rates above the current ~6.6% 12‑month forecast.
That would make future borrowing substantially more expensive than it appears today.
Resilient demand and tight supply
If the labor market remains strong and new supply (housing starts) underwhelms, home prices could grow faster than the current flat baseline, making homes more expensive later.
All figures here are national aggregates. Your local market may look very different:
Some metros may experience price declines due to overbuilding or outmigration.
Others with tight inventory and strong job growth may see continued price appreciation.
Local supply‑demand conditions, migration patterns, and industry mix can all materially shift the buy‑now vs. wait calculus.
Even if macro conditions favor buying, it can still be risky individually if:
Your job or income is unstable.
You have high variable‑rate debt that could strain your budget.
You might need to move again within 2–3 years, raising the risk that selling costs wipe out any gains.
These personal risks can easily outweigh the macro advantage of buying now instead of in 6–12 months.
Before acting on the macroeconomic signals, assess your own readiness. Buying now is more compelling only if you are financially and personally prepared.
Emergency Savings
Aim for 3–6 months of essential expenses in liquid savings after your down payment and closing costs.
Stable Income & Employment
A reliable job or income stream is crucial, especially with mortgage rates in the 6%+ range.
Debt‑to‑Income (DTI) Ratio
Lenders typically prefer:
<36–43% total DTI (all debts including the new mortgage).
A lower DTI gives you more cushion if rates or expenses rise.
Credit Score
Higher scores qualify you for better mortgage rates, which is especially important if the overall rate environment is rising.
Down Payment & Closing Costs
Down payment: often 3–20% of the purchase price, depending on loan type.
Closing costs: typically 2–5% of the purchase price.
Ensure these funds do not drain your emergency savings.
Ongoing Ownership Costs
Property taxes, homeowner’s insurance, HOA fees (if any), maintenance, and repairs.
A common guideline: budget 1–2% of the home’s value per year for maintenance.
Buying becomes more attractive if you plan to stay put for 5+ years, spreading fixed transaction costs and reducing the risk of needing to sell in a downturn.
If you expect major life changes (location, job, family size) in the next 2–3 years, the flexibility of renting may outweigh the macro advantage of buying now.
Even if rates rise, you retain some flexibility:
You can choose a fixed‑rate mortgage to lock in today’s rates and protect yourself from further increases.
If rates fall later, you may have the option to refinance to a lower rate, though this is not guaranteed and involves costs.
Ensuring you select a conservative loan structure that fits your budget is more important than trying to time the market perfectly.
Summarizing the evidence:
Mortgage rates are projected to rise from 6.22% to around 6.5–6.6% over the next 6–12 months.
Home prices (nationally) are expected to remain roughly flat to slightly higher, not materially cheaper.
The economy and labor market look relatively stable in the baseline, with unemployment hovering around 4.3%, which does not suggest a major housing downturn.
Rents and housing inflation may ease somewhat, but not enough to clearly tip the scales in favor of waiting.
Given this combination, affordability over the next 6–12 months is more likely to worsen than improve: you face a higher interest rate on a home that costs roughly the same, rather than a clearly cheaper buying opportunity later.
Therefore, conditional on being financially ready and intending to stay in the home for several years, the macro data support buying now rather than waiting 6–12 months.
However, this is a probabilistic, macro‑level judgment, not personalized financial advice. You should:
Carefully evaluate your job security, savings, debt load, credit profile, and time horizon.
Pay close attention to local market conditions, which can diverge sharply from national averages.
Choose a conservative mortgage structure that you can comfortably afford under reasonable stress scenarios.
If those boxes are checked, today’s environment—high but still lower mortgage rates than forecast, stable prices, and a steady labor market—offers a more favorable entry point than the most likely conditions 6–12 months from now.
This post looks at whether it is a good time to buy a home now or wait 6–12 months. It uses current and projected US data to compare outcomes on average. The main conclusion is that, if you are financially ready and plan to own for several years, buying today is likely a better move than waiting. Mortgage rates are expected to rise, while home prices are expected to stay about the same or rise slightly. The economy and job market look steady, which reduces the chance of a big price drop.