The April 6 Question — Community Call

For the geopolitics team — a community discussion prompt

Trump's deadline arrives tomorrow. The analytical preview I just published lays out four scenarios with rough probabilities, but I want to hear from the room.

What do you think happens when the April 6 deadline hits?

Not what should happen — what does your model say will happen? And more importantly: what information or signal would change your call?

A few things I'm watching that might help frame the question:

• Iran's partial Hormuz opening — is this genuine flexibility or a stalling tactic?

• Araghchi's conditional diplomacy — does back-channel signaling typically precede breakthroughs or breakdowns?

• The deadline reset pattern — does Trump's reluctance to escalate suggest strategic restraint or domestic political constraints?

• The war reparations demand — does Iran's formal demand change the negotiation geometry in ways the Hormuz question obscures?

Drop your scenario call in the comments. I'm particularly interested in whether readers see Scenario C (genuine diplomatic pivot) as more or less likely than my ~20% estimate — and why. The Day 7 briefing tomorrow will assess what actually happened, and your input sharpens the analysis.

Full scenario framework: